Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
